Revenue Funnel

You're either generating revenue, retaining revenue or both - either way, this newsletter is my way of distilling 16 years of GTM experience into weekly nuggets to help you and 1000+ other industry leaders get unstuck and grow your business.

Apr 06 • 3 min read

Every Deal is a Gamble 🎲


Read Time: 4-5 mins

Hey Reader

I was speaking with an AE recently who had just lost a deal.

What made it especially frustrating was that their solution could absolutely solve the problem. It just needed a couple of extra steps to get there. Nothing wild. But the buyer still walked. closed-lost!

That conversation got me thinking: we often talk about “helping buyers buy” but what we’re really doing is helping them de-risk change inside their organisation.

Every new opportunity for a buyer is a hypothesis. A hypothesis is basically a guess or proposed explanation you make based on the evidence you have, even if it's not a ton. It's like a starting point to help you figure out what to investigate next. Every hypothesis requires proof before action. That’s why even the best solutions get left on the table. This is not because of value, but because of the perceived risk.

Let’s break it down.

The Buyer’s Journey Is Really a Risk Management Process

Here’s how it tends to play out:

  1. We have a need.
    Something’s not working, or something could be better.
  2. We build a hypothesis.
    “If we implement X, we’ll get Y.”
  3. We select potential options.
    This includes vendors, internal ideas, process changes.
  4. We de-risk each option.
    Who do we trust? What’s the cost of being wrong? How much evidence do we need?
  5. We act (maybe).
    Action only happens when risk feels manageable or when inaction becomes riskier.

When we see buyers stall, ghost, or go back to the status quo, it’s usually not because they didn’t see value. It’s because they didn’t feel safe enough to say yes.


Critical Insight

“The choice of an act may be construed as the acceptance of a gamble that can yield various outcomes with different probabilities.”
Kahneman & Tversky, 1979

In B2B sales, every decision is a calculated risk.

Kahneman’s Prospect Theory teaches us that people are risk-averse when it comes to gains. If given the choice between a sure win or a potentially larger win with uncertainty, they’ll often choose the safer option.

This is why “do nothing” or “renew with the incumbent” feels better than taking a chance on something new even if your solution could drive 2x ROI. If they are comparing 2-3 different solutions, the one that is the simplest pathway to the result that can also show up with proof - typically wins.

The math doesn’t matter if the risk feels high.

Your job as a seller isn’t just to pitch value, it’s to reduce risk perception. That’s how you help buyers move from hypothesis to conviction.

Food for Thought

Where in your sales process are you helping buyers de-risk their decision?

  • Risk is highest in the beginning.
    1. Your rep is a risk and the team working the deal
    2. Your business
  • How do you make choosing your solution feel like a sure thing?
  • What evidence, examples, or guarantees can you introduce earlier in the journey?

This week, don’t just ask: “How do we show value?”

Start asking: “How do we make this feel safe?”


Edge of Growth #20

Tune in on: Amazon | Apple | Spotify

Most companies invest in data and AI but struggle to see clear business returns.

In tomorrow’s Edge of Growth, we sit down with Karl Dinkelmann, CEO of Nexus Data & bestselling author, to uncover:
✔️ Why most companies measure the wrong things
✔️ The mindset shift from data literacy to data confidence
✔️ How to ensure AI actually helps you grow


Posts I liked this week

Until Next Time ✌🏾

PS

If you’re feeling a little concerned about your revenue growth then we have a few things to help you find the answer:

Evaluate Your Strategy → Curious about where your Go-to-Market strategy stands? Discover key areas for improvement. [Take the Assessment]

GTM Insights → Want to learn more about Go-to-Market strategies? Check out our latest insights on YouTube. [Watch Now]

1-1 Consultation → Need personalised advice? Book a 1-1 consultation, and I’ll help you map out your next steps. [Book Here]


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You're either generating revenue, retaining revenue or both - either way, this newsletter is my way of distilling 16 years of GTM experience into weekly nuggets to help you and 1000+ other industry leaders get unstuck and grow your business.


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